We may not know when the 2020 MLB season will begin, but we do know that, with a truncated season ahead, there are a few adjustments to make when formulating your fantasy baseball draft plan.
First and foremost, do not overvalue starting pitching. Though hurlers like Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom have a distinct talent advantage over most of their contemporaries, one of the primary reasons their value is so high in fantasy is their innings-pitched advantage.
Last season, there were 15 starters who threw for more than 200 innings. Of those, just two had an ERA over 4.00 and just five had a mark of 3.70 or higher. Just three had fewer than 200 strikeouts, and nine had in excess of 220. But in 2020, none of those pitchers will throw for 200 innings.
To throw more than 200 innings, each of these starters needed at least 32 starts in a given season. If the average pitcher makes five starts in a month, a truncated season may yield just 20-22 starts, and even 20 complete games isn’t going to push them over that 200-inning mark. With that advantage removed and looking at another 15 starters who threw at least 150 innings with a strikeout per inning and an ERA below 4.00, you…