June 19, 2021

Sarris: What all those non-tenders can tell us about how players are being valued (The Athletic)


This year, a whopping 40 players were non-tendered at the deadline, nearly equal to the 46 who were non-tendered in the two previous years combined. Fan favorites like Kevin Pillar, everyday players due less than $5 million like Domingo Santana, and even above-average players like César Hernández all found themselves without a contract.

Using the accepted relationship between production and salary, many of those players should have been retained. By looking at free-agent contracts and projected value, a win above replacement is supposed to cost around $8 million in today’s market. Hernández, for example, is projected to be a league-average player, worth around $16 million, and his arbitration-awarded salary was projected to be around $12 million. And yet … he’s a free agent.

Something seems off on the accepted framework.

One suggestion has been that the relationship between what a team is willing to pay for a player and that…

Read “Sarris: What all those non-tenders can tell us about how players are being valued” at The Athletic